tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4093229006254491664.post6268179400509502153..comments2017-11-30T12:19:00.452-05:00Comments on Biased Estimates: Jeff Leek asks questions near and dear to my heartTommyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14573787040201086607noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4093229006254491664.post-12295792678487122362014-05-08T19:19:13.743-04:002014-05-08T19:19:13.743-04:00this comes down to modeling (understanding through...this comes down to modeling (understanding through eqns) vs (black box) machine learning predicting. ARIMA, *GARCH, Black-Scholes..et al models created by econometricians are only halfway decent b/c there was some economic intuition behind creating them. i give the ML folks credit for being creative but i just can't accept that a (general) algorithm is going to perform as well as a model. even if the algos can predict just as well... what do you learn from it?? isn't that what data science about? ..trying to extract knowledge from data?<br /><br />and as an aside: i don't like it when viz is only regarded as pretty pictures instead of using viz as a tool to try to understand by, say, trying to visualize structure in the data.Majid al-Dosarihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16192275403547721607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4093229006254491664.post-85294534871144026942014-05-08T18:29:30.579-04:002014-05-08T18:29:30.579-04:00Haha. Of course, time series analysis is hard!
A...Haha. Of course, time series analysis is hard! <br /><br />At the end of the day, I don't see sophisticated time series forecasting coming out of data science. The data vis folks just plot series next to each other over time (in very pretty ways), but trends can be very misleading. The ML folks tend to make Markovian assumptions in their models. That is rarely an assumption that holds in real world temporal data, making time series challenging. But you're probably neck deep in that stuff now. :)<br /><br />I am also excited to see what ML can do in a time series context, which is still dominated by regression so far as I can tell. Thomas Joneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14573787040201086607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4093229006254491664.post-129122229909470772014-05-08T15:48:04.133-04:002014-05-08T15:48:04.133-04:00can you elaborate on why you think 'data scien...can you elaborate on why you think 'data science' hasn't developed approaches to time-series data?<br /><br />(i'd like a diversion from studying for my time series analysis course final)Majid al-Dosarihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16192275403547721607noreply@blogger.com